The Black Swan, the turkey, and the bell curve For our turkey, Every day is a good day …UNTIL the highly improbable occurs... An outlier? Yes Extreme impact? Yes Retrospective hindsight? Yes Thanksgiving is the turkey’s Black Swan event! Bell Curves Frequency Bell curves help to hide black swans The Experiment •Toss 10 identical coins (Heads/Tails) •Note results •Repeat 999 other times •Plot results on Bell Curve Bell Curves Frequency What if were looking